Method
Not a black box. Not a secret. Below is the exact six-step pipeline every Saturday tip passes through, the real weights on the rating model, and the staking rules that turn a good pick into a good bet.
In one equation
We only back runners where the TAB price is materially above what our model thinks the horse is actually worth. Any single bet is probabilistic. Over hundreds of +positive-edge wagers, the expected return is the record on the results page.
The pipeline
Each Saturday morning the whole thing runs end-to-end. If any step can’t justify the bet, it’s cut before it reaches the card.
We pull form history and pre-race data from the Punting Form API (PFAI ratings, sectionals, trainer/jockey form, barrier, weight, class history). Market prices come from TAB’s fixed-odds API at publish time. Post-race results are settled against official stewards’ reports surfaced through the same PF feed.
Each runner gets eight sub-scores (see the weights below). The weighted composite is a rank-based blend — runners are ranked within the race on each signal, then the ranks are combined using the weights. Rank-based means one monster PFAI doesn’t drown out the other seven signals; balanced runners rise.
Composite scores are softmaxed into probabilities that sum to 1, then inverted into a fair decimal price for every runner. We pull the TAB fixed-win price and compute edge = (market − fair) / fair. A positive edge means the market is paying us above the model’s true value.
A runner only ships as a Best Bet if confidence clears 72 out of 100, the top margin over runner #2 is at least 5 points, the raw PFAI score is ≥ 65, the field is 7–15 runners, the track is no worse than a Slow 7, and the data quality flag passes. We hard-cap at three Best Bets per day regardless of how many qualify — if everything looks good we take the highest-confidence three.
Stake sizing is price-tier based, not confidence-tier — price is what actually moves expected value. Each Best Bet also carries a walk-away price equal to our fair price: if the market drifts into our fair estimate, the edge is gone and we skip. You see this on every tip as a hard number.
Every tip is logged at the market price stamped on the card. Results settle within 24 hours. No retroactive price upgrades, no deleted losers, no closing-line-value gymnastics to flatter the P&L. The public results page is the record of record.
The rating model
These are the exact weights sitting in the code right now, not a marketing approximation. If we tune them, we’ll change the number on this page.
PFAI composite
40%Punting Form’s speed/class/form index — the backbone signal.
Closing-sectional rank
15%Who was finishing on and who was cooked over the last 600m of their recent runs.
Time-adjusted weight-for-class
10%Recent best times normalised to class and corrected for track rating.
Class change
10%Rewards horses dropping in grade; flags runners stepping up into stronger company.
Trainer form
10%30-day strike rate and win-pool share of the stable.
Jockey form
5%Recent strike rate at the track distance and class level.
Map favouritism
5%Expected map advantage from barrier, early speed and likely race shape.
Average-to-early speed
5%How naturally the horse finds the pace from barrier rise.
The composite is a rank-weighted blend. Each runner is ranked within the race on every signal, the ranks are combined using the weights above, and the resulting score is softmaxed into a coherent set of fair prices that sum to 100% across the field.
Staking
Confidence-tier staking sounds smart but in practice confidence is already baked into the Best Bet gate. What actually moves expected value from bet to bet is the price tier — so that’s what we stake on.
Field-size rule. Each-way is only available when the field pays places. Fewer than 5 runners we force to a win bet; 5–7 runners pays 2 places; 8+ pays 3. The staking block on the tip tells you which applies.
Walk-away price. Our fair price is the minimum we’ll take. If the market moves in past that number before you bet, the edge is gone — skip the leg.
Bankroll. We don’t tell you what a unit is. Sensible punters set it at 1–2% of the bankroll they can afford to lose. If that sentence made you uncomfortable, racing isn’t for you.
Honest framing
A value engine, not a prediction engine
We bet when the bookmaker pays us more than the horse is worth. Long-run, that’s positive expected value. Short-run, variance is large. No result from a single Saturday means much.
Transparent about its gaps
Today we use one market source (TAB) and don’t yet model track bias or rail position directly. Those are on the roadmap — and we’ll tell you when they ship rather than pretending they’re already there.
Never a guarantee machine
If the edge is clean and the staking is disciplined, a three-month stretch can still lose money. Anyone who tells you different is selling something worse than we are.
The tips change. The method doesn’t. Every bet we send is the output of the six steps above — and shows up on the public results page, win or lose, the next day.